Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-01 33.306336 35.872372 38.657293 41.925698 45.684572 49.907142 55.060096
2025-06-08 28.933939 32.235885 36.037562 40.807898 46.738386 54.020220 63.896340
2025-06-15 27.350600 31.227516 35.890600 42.053021 50.217115 61.047025 77.266630
2025-06-22 25.613640 29.743799 34.866410 41.896032 51.668590 65.456115 87.929674
2025-06-29 24.017139 28.244613 33.610976 41.193200 52.147854 68.417192 96.995396
2025-07-06 22.511890 26.724698 32.166458 40.029042 51.737546 69.866629 103.812196
2025-07-13 22.057713 26.520479 32.423731 41.222510 54.903446 77.436472 124.086663
2025-07-20 21.529864 26.166792 32.426743 42.015069 57.516555 84.578652 146.610290
2025-07-27 20.977207 25.734003 32.270897 42.528884 59.713693 91.420152 172.071868
2025-08-03 20.264676 25.033536 31.675121 42.291957 60.579129 95.863470 194.099607
2025-08-10 19.469555 24.174188 30.791063 41.515154 60.380299 98.071955 211.148548
2025-08-17 18.742706 23.376602 29.951031 40.738526 60.081536 100.001496 228.857519
2025-08-24 18.068564 22.642520 29.191845 40.080184 60.011377 102.647371 252.585040
2025-08-31 17.344430 21.808973 28.244152 39.045349 59.119952 103.238005 269.333617
2025-09-07 17.212950 21.825201 28.583235 40.200856 62.647500 115.626997 358.772776
2025-09-14 16.784961 21.385386 28.190610 40.055256 63.521128 121.440191 427.296588
2025-09-21 16.272050 20.799166 27.539115 39.403074 63.248889 124.001505 481.695558
2025-09-28 15.695835 20.099015 26.678102 38.321602 61.939805 123.226667 509.111634
2025-10-05 15.627989 20.155917 27.018802 39.430283 65.564256 138.828696 777.370478
2025-10-12 15.482768 20.088083 27.152430 40.165660 68.473613 153.671938 1246.301284
2025-10-19 15.292679 19.943038 27.150458 40.642034 70.854189 168.023449 2214.782796
2025-10-26 14.980419 19.598123 26.801308 40.422408 71.498470 175.979060 3698.247290
2025-11-02 14.591176 19.122046 26.214756 39.701894 70.792282 177.991669 5363.491546